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Re: Shavasana post# 4620

Saturday, 11/11/2017 12:29:36 PM

Saturday, November 11, 2017 12:29:36 PM

Post# of 10474
LCE 2016 188K Tons per article not 2017 - 2K less than 2015 numbers at 186K
LCE Market to electrify the world's fleet = 3,100,000,000 tons/YEAR for 20 years.

Known Reserves from my research show 27,000,000K tons
3,100,000K * 20 years = 62,000,000K tons or 2.3 times known reserves.

Not sure the world fleet can go all BEV since we do not have this much known LCE. LCE reserves would have to triple or transportation ownership would have to shrink 70%. Could happen with autonomous cars and transportation as a cloud service ownership model.

Most interesting in the article to me is $25,750/LCE ton market price:
If production in 2020 hits 1,000,000K tons world wide and LACDD is 14% market share, then EBITDA for LACDD is 3.4 BN annually - at current shares out and PE of 25 this puts the stock price at $791

Even if you go conservative and say shares out doubles, LCE price drops 20%, and PE is 15, then 2020 share price goes to $185.
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